Ukraine’s aviation market, once poised for a major rebound in 2025, now faces an uncertain future as the ongoing conflict continues to disrupt the country’s airspace. With major airlines like Ryanair, Wizz Air, and Air Baltic eager to resume operations, the absence of a ceasefire means Ukraine’s skies remain closed to commercial flights. Russia’s recent rejection of proposals for a temporary halt in fighting has only compounded the uncertainty, making the timeline for reopening Ukraine’s airspace more unclear than ever.
A Boom Turned to Bust
Before the war, Ukraine’s aviation sector was in a period of rapid growth. In 2019, the country’s airports saw a record 29.5 million passengers, marking a high point for Ukraine’s aviation industry. However, the full-scale invasion in 2022 forced the complete shutdown of Ukrainian airspace, bringing the thriving market to a halt.
By 2021, Ukraine’s airports handled 16.2 million passengers, a dramatic recovery from the pandemic’s lowest point in 2020. However, it was still far below the pre-war levels. The disruption has not only impacted Ukrainian airlines but also affected international carriers like Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Air France, and Turkish Airlines, which had previously generated significant revenue from Ukrainian travelers.
Airlines Preparing for a Comeback
Despite the challenges, several major airlines are already planning for a return to Ukrainian airspace once it is deemed safe. Ryanair, one of Europe’s largest low-cost carriers, has announced plans to resume flights to Ukraine within six weeks of a ceasefire. The airline aims to reallocate aircraft from other major airports like London Stansted and Paris Orly to Kyiv and Lviv, potentially resuming its operations with a swift return to the country.
Wizz Air is also optimistic, with plans to launch up to 60 routes from Ukraine within six months of a peace agreement. The Hungarian airline has expressed confidence that it can rapidly expand its services to meet demand once the conflict subsides.
Air Baltic, Latvia’s national airline, has pledged to return to Ukraine as soon as the safety situation allows. The airline has plans to operate flights between Ukraine and destinations like Riga, Vilnius, and Tallinn, and could station up to five aircraft in Kyiv within three to six months after resuming flights.
Ukraine Prepares to Restart Commercial Flights
As part of the preparation for the resumption of air travel, Ukraine is planning to restart commercial flights from either Boryspil International Airport or Lviv Airport. However, the key challenge in restarting flights lies in securing the necessary insurance coverage. Arranging insurance mechanisms would be simpler if flights were to begin from Lviv Airport.
Yet, President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that Boryspil International Airport, located in the capital city of Kyiv, be the first to reopen. For large passenger aircraft such as Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 models to resume operations, insurance coverage needs to be in place, with estimates suggesting it will require coverage of at least three-quarters of a billion dollars.
The final decision regarding the resumption of flights will ultimately rest with the Office of the President, which will take into account the security situation and the effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defense systems.
Will Ukraine Ever Have a National Airline Again?
Before the war, Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) was the country’s flagship carrier, controlling around one-third of the country’s air traffic. In 2019, UIA turned a notable $69 million profit. However, the airline has faced significant setbacks since the war’s onset. In 2024, Ukrainian authorities seized seven UIA aircraft worth an estimated $40 million as part of an ongoing investigation into tax evasion.
The future of Ukraine International Airlines is uncertain. The rights to its logo were acquired by aviation blogger and former director of DTEK Orlivska VES LLC, Ivan Lyakh, raising questions about the airline’s potential revival. Financing a new version of UIA could be costly and complex, leading some analysts to suggest that Ukraine may be better off attracting foreign carriers rather than investing in a new national airline that could struggle to turn a profit in a post-war environment.
The Impact on Ukrainian Travelers
For Ukrainian travelers, the continued closure of the country’s airspace has meant relying on alternative routes to reach international destinations. Since 2022, many passengers have flown out of neighboring Polish airports, such as Warsaw and Kraków, adding hours to their travel times. One commonly used route is the train journey from Kraków to Kharkiv, which takes 18 to 24 hours depending on connections and border processing times.
Before the conflict, a direct flight between Kraków and Kharkiv would take only two hours. The extended travel time highlights the severe disruptions facing Ukrainian travelers, who must rely on overland routes to reach their destinations.
Another popular route is the train from Kyiv to Warsaw, which takes around 13 hours. This long journey underscores the significant barriers faced by Ukrainians who have to adapt to the ongoing challenges brought on by the war, making air travel an increasingly distant prospect.
Looking Ahead
As the war continues to disrupt Ukraine’s aviation industry, the prospects for a full recovery remain unclear. While several international airlines have expressed a willingness to return to the country, the lack of a ceasefire has left much of the future in limbo. The longer the conflict drags on, the more uncertain Ukraine’s aviation market becomes, leaving travelers and airlines alike wondering when the skies will be safe enough for a return to normalcy.
For now, Ukraine’s aviation market remains grounded, with no clear end in sight. The hope for a revival in 2025 may yet be dashed, as the country waits for peace to bring back the skies.
